[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":290},["ShallowReactive",2],{"story-2043-cn":3},{"id":4,"slug":5,"slugs":5,"currentSlug":5,"title":6,"subtitle":7,"coverImagesSmall":8,"coverImages":9,"content":50,"questions":51,"relatedArticles":61,"body_color":288,"card_color":289},"2043",null,"中国房地产市场崩盘：对经济预期的精准拆解","系统性通缩战略揭示北京房地产行业长期重组计划",[],[10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,32,34,35,36,37,31,38,39,39,40,41,39,42,42,43,36,20,44,45,46,12,47,39,48,49,39],"https://plib.aastocks.com/aafnnews/image/medialib/20220817120518751_m.jpg","https://newsfile.futunn.com/news-thumbnail/20240614/public/17183490694687205945868-news-thumbnail/20240614/public/17183490694684533733683.jpeg.jpeg","https://img.cls.cn/images/20251215/zummhBDlor_617x720.png","https://www.devdiscourse.com/remote.axd?https://devdiscourse.blob.core.windows.net/imagegallery/29_02_2020_19_19_41_2821142.jpg?width=1280","https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1SlxYS.img?w=768&h=512&m=6","https://plib.aastocks.com/aafnnews/image/medialib/20220411160006940_l.jpg","https://m.economictimes.com/thumb/msid-125969092,width-1200,height-900,resizemode-4,imgsize-180578/chinas-resale-home-prices-fall-again-in-august-amid-market-woes.jpg","https://cdn.zonebourse.com/static/resize/768/432//images/reuters/2025-12/2025-12-15T053323Z_1_LYNXMPELBE07Z_RTROPTP_4_CHINA-ECONOMY-PROPERTY.JPG","https://www.devdiscourse.com/remote.axd?https://devdiscourse.blob.core.windows.net/imagegallery/27_06_2019_18_00_51_6514463.png?width=1280","https://cdn.zonebourse.com/static/resize/768/432//images/reuters/2025-10/2025-10-20T025337Z_1_LYNXNPEL9J03W_RTROPTP_4_CHINA-ECONOMY-GDP.JPG","https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/trkd-images/LYNXMPELBE07Z_L.jpg","https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/trkd-images/LYNXMPELBE03N_L.jpg","https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iwiMW2n9wrZ4/v0/1200x800.jpg","https://www.devdiscourse.com/remote.axd?https://devdiscourse.blob.core.windows.net/imagegallery/11_03_2020_13_22_31_2034832.jpg?width=1280","https://static.dw.com/image/75102015_804.jpg","https://cdn.dimsumdaily.hk/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15114258/Property-fair-3433.jpg","https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/700x400/public/d8/images/canvas/2025/12/15/78d51673-da4b-45f8-b825-9c4307ffaf30_38bbe865.jpg?itok=m39sUuvK&v=1765775039","https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1RxMRM.img?w=768&h=512&m=6","https://image.hkstandard.com.hk/f/1024p0/0x0/100/none/8621f8b3114118f7f5c50c1dd70be463/2025-12/WhatsApp_Image_2025-12-15_at_15_53_24.jpeg","https://megaphone.imgix.net/podcasts/0772d4de-d9a2-11f0-aa99-7b2e7243ac68/image/aea741df92ea84521c4485070972660d.jpg?ixlib=rails-4.3.1&w=400&h=400","https://moderndiplomacy.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/China-stock-market.jpg","https://plib.aastocks.com/aafnnews/image/medialib/20240826154330150_m.jpeg","https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/ff7940b8d3530851a405df45d44a1d4d081c15648f84b8b93ac9334f74dd1782?w=960&dpr=1&f=webp","https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/VOWPQR2IMVJU7CEIBLNXWVYSLU.jpg?auth=2640064221fee0761aa5bc02f5b96faeb7311c5dcea7087f30485696045c8401&width=1920&quality=80","https://th.bing.com/th?id=ORMS.e8a45365b2443a171dd0433afad0e540&pid=Wdp","https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iRLoMJ9FNstc/v1/-1x-1.webp","https://plib.aastocks.com/aafnnews/image/medialib/20220411160006940_m.jpg","https://image.hkstandard.com.hk/f/640p0/0x0/100/none/4312574852ab1117a8bf9e71263816dd/2025-12/WhatsApp_Image_2025-12-15_at_11_21_11_2_.jpeg","https://image.bastillepost.com/1200x/wp-content/uploads/global/2025/12/8457438_1765796716003_a_FB.jpg.webp","https://s.tradingview.com/static/images/illustrations/news-story.jpg","https://img.36krcdn.com/hsossms/20251215/v2_34b5e09d7eb949bb9edd1e508b299819@337187376_oswg188836oswg1029oswg1182_img_png?x-oss-process=image/quality,q_100/format,jpg/interlace,1","https://etimg.etb2bimg.com/thumb/msid-125970147,width-1200,height-900,resizemode-4/.jpg","https://storage.googleapis.com/media.mwcradio.com/mimesis/2025-12/15/2025-12-15T023044Z_1_LYNXMPELBE03N_RTROPTP_3_CHINA-ECONOMY-GDP.JPG","https://theedgemalaysia.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.theedgemarkets.com%2FChina%20property_Bloomberg.jpg&w=1920&q=75","https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/8nYSrLX0ynvfWxzzWcsi6g--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD02OTk7Y2Y9d2VicA--/https://media.zenfs.com/en/deutsche_welle_articles_124/70b73a2d492cc9180e8dbedaf46f65b1","https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/_next/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimagedelivery.net%2FMkQ8HKvpw9EqULcU_pSqWg%2Fcloud-83a1d123-7a51-410e-af19-589141588771%2Fpublic&w=3840&q=85&dpl=dpl_5bFyrJPiKHNDXpSZMJSi1F6kWMR8","http://img.yicaiglobal.com/src/image/2025/12/106001257310917.jpg","https://img.caixin.com/2025-12-12/176551372506872_1280_720.jpg","https://www.sadanews.ps/cached_uploads/resize/960/831/2025/12/15/3e8503963d0dea136ece8985bf63a708-1765790360.webp","https://assets.thehansindia.com/h-upload/2025/12/15/1609247-stocks.webp","**中国房地产市场正在经历一场深思熟虑、具有战略意义的解构**，这远不止于一次典型的市场调整。随着部分市场房价暴跌高达50%，超过18万亿元人民币的家庭财富蒸发，北京正在执行一次经过精心计算的经济重塑，优先考虑长期的结构性转型，而非短期的稳定性。\n\n**这种系统性的价格通缩并非偶然，而是一种精心管理的政策干预。** 11月，70个主要城市的新房价格下跌0.39%，二手房价格跌幅更是高达0.66%。这些并非随机波动，而是一项旨在重组一个曾是双刃剑的行业的政府战略——此前推动了GDP增长，但越来越造成系统性金融风险。\n\n**恒大和碧桂园等主要房地产开发商的违约，标志着市场的一次深刻调整。** 随着70多家开发商破产或需要国家纾困，北京正在外科手术般地瓦解过去二十年占据主导地位的投机性房地产模式。政府的做法揭示了一种细致的策略：允许房价逐步下跌，同时谨慎考虑有限的干预措施，如抵押贷款利息补贴和交易费用减免。\n\n**连锁反应远远超出了国内市场。** 澳大利亚、巴西和智利等全球大宗商品出口国——这些国家严重依赖中国的建筑需求——正在经历显著的经济中断。家庭消费正在减弱，奢侈品牌和汽车的进口减少，这加剧了经济的复杂性。\n\n最关键的是，数百万中国房主现在陷入负资产，引发了公众愤怒，并凸显了深刻的经济动荡。专家预测，这场衰退可能持续十年，一些人预测复苏要到2020年代末才会发生。这表明北京愿意承受巨大的短期痛苦，以实现一个更可持续、投机性更低的房地产生态系统。",[52,55,58],{"title":53,"answer":54,"author":5,"avatar":5,"time":5},"中国为何允许房地产市场如此急剧下滑？","北京正在优先考虑长期的市场结构调整，而非短期的经济稳定。通过系统性地给房地产市场降温，他们旨在减少投机性投资，降低金融系统风险，并创建一个更可持续的房地产生态系统，不再依赖持续的房价上涨。",{"title":56,"answer":57,"author":5,"avatar":5,"time":5},"中国房地产市场崩盘会对全球造成什么影响？","这次经济衰退正在影响着依赖中国建筑需求的澳大利亚、巴西和智利等全球大宗商品出口国。此外，家庭消费疲软正在减少奢侈品牌和汽车的进口，这在中国的边境之外也引发了更广泛的经济连锁反应。",{"title":59,"answer":60,"author":5,"avatar":5,"time":5},"预计这次房地产市场低迷会持续多久？","专家预测，这次低迷可能会持续长达10年，一些人预测复苏要到2020年代末才会出现。 这种延长的时限表明，这更像是一个全面的、深思熟虑的市场转型战略，而非典型的周期性调整。",[62,67,71,76,80,84,88,92,96,100,104,107,111,116,120,124,128,132,136,140,144,148,152,156,159,162,167,170,175,179,183,186,190,193,197,202,205,209,213,217,220,224,228,231,235,238,242,246,249,253,256,260,264,268,272,275,278,281,284],{"id":63,"title":64,"source":65,"logo":21,"time":66},89891,"China’s home prices slide further in November By Reuters","https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/chinas-home-prices-slide-further-in-november-4407151","3天前",{"id":68,"title":69,"source":70,"logo":42,"time":66},89890,"China’s home prices slide further in November","https://wmbdradio.com/2025/12/14/chinas-home-prices-slide-further-in-november/",{"id":72,"title":73,"source":74,"logo":5,"time":75},88807,"EM assets slide as China property woes, geopolitics rattle sentiment","https://www.marketscreener.com/news/em-assets-slide-as-china-property-woes-geopolitics-rattle-sentiment-ce7d50d9d988f02c","2天前",{"id":77,"title":78,"source":79,"logo":5,"time":75},88806,"China's Property Woes Deepen As Markets Slide Again","https://finimize.com/content/chinas-property-woes-deepen-as-markets-slide-again",{"id":81,"title":82,"source":83,"logo":29,"time":75},88805,"The great stall of China","https://www.reuters.com/podcasts/reuters-morning-bid/great-stall-china-2025-12-15/",{"id":85,"title":86,"source":87,"logo":26,"time":75},87679,"China’s home prices slide further in November as authorities vow to stem decline","https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3336438/chinas-home-prices-slide-further-november-authorities-vow-stabilise-sector",{"id":89,"title":90,"source":91,"logo":24,"time":75},89977,"Why China's property crash must be kept be top secret","https://www.dw.com/en/why-chinas-property-crash-must-be-kept-top-secret/a-75074157",{"id":93,"title":94,"source":95,"logo":22,"time":66},87952,"China Home-Price Slump Persists as Authorities Vow Stability","https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-15/china-home-price-slump-persists-as-authorities-vow-to-stabilize",{"id":97,"title":98,"source":99,"logo":44,"time":75},89895,"Why China's property crash must be kept top secret","https://uk.news.yahoo.com/why-chinas-property-crash-must-130100783.html",{"id":101,"title":102,"source":103,"logo":19,"time":66},89894,"China's home prices slide further in November","https://www.marketscreener.com/news/china-s-home-prices-slide-further-in-november-ce7d50d8d189f023",{"id":105,"title":102,"source":106,"logo":39,"time":66},89893,"https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L6N3XL034:0-china-s-home-prices-slide-further-in-november/",{"id":108,"title":109,"source":110,"logo":34,"time":75},89892,"China's property sector ailing, but BofA sees some silver linings","https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/china-s-property-sector-ailing-but-bofa-sees-some-silver-linings/vi-AA1Sm0nQ",{"id":112,"title":113,"source":114,"logo":36,"time":115},87700,"JPM: Mortgage Subsidies Alone Insufficient to Turn CN Property Mkt Around; No Investor Overreactions Observed","http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1489769/3","7天前",{"id":117,"title":118,"source":119,"logo":17,"time":75},89889,"China's property pain sours year-end mood","https://www.marketscreener.com/news/china-s-property-pain-sours-year-end-mood-ce7d50d8d18cf024",{"id":121,"title":122,"source":123,"logo":10,"time":75},88953,"Fitch Expects CN Real Estate Industry to Keep Contracting Next Yr, Forecasts New Home Sales to Drop 7-8%","http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1490397/3",{"id":125,"title":126,"source":127,"logo":45,"time":75},89888,"Morning Bid: China's property pain sours year-end mood","https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/global-markets-view-europe-20251215/",{"id":129,"title":130,"source":131,"logo":48,"time":75},89887,"House Prices in China Continue to Decline in November","https://www.sadanews.ps/en/news/257942.html",{"id":133,"title":134,"source":135,"logo":5,"time":75},87663,"MORNING BID EUROPE-China's property pain sours year-end mood","https://www.marketscreener.com/news/morning-bid-europe-china-s-property-pain-sours-year-end-mood-ce7d50d8d18cf124",{"id":137,"title":138,"source":139,"logo":30,"time":75},89886,"EM Assets Slide as China Property Fears and Geopolitics Dent Risk Appetite","https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/12/15/em-assets-slide-as-china-property-fears-and-geopolitics-dent-risk-appetite/",{"id":141,"title":142,"source":143,"logo":47,"time":75},87664,"China Ramps Up Effort to Offload Vast Supply of Unsold Homes","https://www.caixinglobal.com/2025-12-15/china-ramps-up-effort-to-offload-vast-supply-of-unsold-homes-102393476.html",{"id":145,"title":146,"source":147,"logo":38,"time":75},89885,"China's home price declines in November","https://www.bastillepost.com/global/article/5455990-chinas-home-price-declines-in-november",{"id":149,"title":150,"source":151,"logo":28,"time":75},87662,"China property sector to keep shrinking next year, Fitch says","https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/319337/China-property-sector-to-keep-shrinking-next-year-Fitch-says",{"id":153,"title":154,"source":155,"logo":39,"time":66},87690,"China New Home Prices Fall for 29th Month","https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:509715:0-china-new-home-prices-fall-for-29th-month/",{"id":157,"title":102,"source":158,"logo":39,"time":66},87691,"https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_AZN4RESLM:0-china-s-home-prices-slide-further-in-november/",{"id":160,"title":102,"source":161,"logo":41,"time":66},88819,"https://realty.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/chinas-home-prices-slide-further-in-november/125970147",{"id":163,"title":164,"source":165,"logo":27,"time":166},88824,"Morgan Stanley sees mainland China property market slump extending into 2026","https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/other/morgan-stanley-sees-mainland-china-property-market-slump-extending-into-2026/ar-AA1RxwQv?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds","15天前",{"id":168,"title":113,"source":169,"logo":36,"time":115},88823,"http://www.aastocks.com/en/mobile/news.aspx?newsid=NOW.1489769&newstype=61&newssource=HK6",{"id":171,"title":172,"source":173,"logo":31,"time":174},88822,"Citi Predicts Any Rebound Among CN Developers This Mth to Last Only Short While; Top Picks CHINA JINMAO/ C&D INTL GROUP/ CHINA RES LAND","https://www.aastocks.com/en/mobile/news.aspx?newsid=NOW.1490081&newstype=61&newssource=AAFN","6天前",{"id":176,"title":177,"source":178,"logo":35,"time":174},87698,"China Vows To Stabilize Property Market As Crisis Deepens","https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/china-vows-to-stabilize-home-market-as-property-crisis-deepens",{"id":180,"title":181,"source":182,"logo":5,"time":174},88821,"Citi Ratings, TPs on CN Developers (Table)","https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1490088/popular-news/AAFN",{"id":184,"title":113,"source":185,"logo":15,"time":115},87699,"http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1489769/popular-news/AAFN",{"id":187,"title":188,"source":189,"logo":32,"time":66},88820,"China home-price slump persists even as authorities vow to address downturn","https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/property/china-home-price-slump-persists-even-authorities-vow-address-downturn",{"id":191,"title":172,"source":192,"logo":31,"time":174},87696,"https://www.aastocks.com/en/mobile/news.aspx?newsid=NOW.1490081&newstype=71&newssource=AAFN",{"id":194,"title":195,"source":196,"logo":39,"time":174},87697,"Chinese property stocks climb as China calls for stabilizing real estate market","https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3XI034:0-chinese-property-stocks-climb-as-china-calls-for-stabilizing-real-estate-market/",{"id":198,"title":199,"source":200,"logo":11,"time":201},87694,"JPMorgan predicts that the mainland may introduce measures to reduce housing purchase costs, with China Resources Land (01109.HK) and Mixc Lifestyle (01209.HK) among the top picks.","https://news.futunn.com/en/post/66108438/jpmorgan-predicts-that-the-mainland-may-introduce-measures-to-reduce","5天前",{"id":203,"title":172,"source":204,"logo":5,"time":174},87695,"https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1490081/recommend-news/AAFN",{"id":206,"title":207,"source":208,"logo":46,"time":201},87692,"China Makes Steadying Property Market a Key Task for 2026","https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-to-focus-on-stabilizing-real-estate-market-by-reducing-housing-inventory-next-year",{"id":210,"title":211,"source":212,"logo":5,"time":201},87693,"Citi expects any rebound in Chinese property stocks this month to be temporary, with its top picks being China Jinmao (00817.HK), C&D International (01908.HK), and China Resources Land (01109.HK).","https://news.futunn.com/en/post/66111350/citi-expects-any-rebound-in-chinese-property-stocks-this-month",{"id":214,"title":215,"source":216,"logo":43,"time":66},87680,"China's home-price slump persists as authorities vow stability","https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/785954",{"id":218,"title":73,"source":219,"logo":39,"time":75},88809,"https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3XL08O:0-em-assets-slide-as-china-property-woes-geopolitics-rattle-sentiment/",{"id":221,"title":222,"source":223,"logo":23,"time":75},88808,"EMERGING MARKETS-EM assets slide as China property woes, geopolitics rattle sentiment","https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3731193-emerging-markets-em-assets-slide-as-china-property-woes-geopolitics-rattle-sentiment",{"id":225,"title":226,"source":227,"logo":12,"time":75},88818,"National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Selling Prices of Commercial Residential Buildings in 70 Large and Medium-Sized Cities Decreased MoM Overall in November","https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103670436",{"id":229,"title":134,"source":230,"logo":18,"time":75},88817,"https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/headlines/3730955-morning-bid-europe-chinas-property-pain-sours-year-end-mood",{"id":232,"title":233,"source":234,"logo":20,"time":75},88816,"Morning Bid: China’s property pain sours year-end mood By Reuters","https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/morning-bid-chinas-property-pain-sours-yearend-mood-4407184",{"id":236,"title":233,"source":237,"logo":20,"time":75},88815,"https://au.investing.com/news/economy-news/morning-bid-chinas-property-pain-sours-yearend-mood-4170308",{"id":239,"title":240,"source":241,"logo":5,"time":75},88814,"Fitch Expects CN Real Estate Industry to Keep Contracting Next Yr, Forecast New Home Sales to Drop 7-8%","http://www.aastocks.com/en/mobile/news.aspx?newsid=NOW.1490397&newssource=AAFN",{"id":243,"title":244,"source":245,"logo":40,"time":75},88813,"National Bureau of Statistics: New Home Sales Prices in First-Tier Cities Dropped 0.4% MoM in November","https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3596516889297154",{"id":247,"title":102,"source":248,"logo":16,"time":66},87689,"https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/chinas-home-prices-slide-further-in-november/articleshow/125969077.cms",{"id":250,"title":251,"source":252,"logo":13,"time":75},88812,"China, Hong Kong stocks fall on gloomy economic data, Vanke default risks","https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/business/3731153-china-hong-kong-stocks-fall-on-gloomy-economic-data-vanke-default-risks",{"id":254,"title":251,"source":255,"logo":49,"time":75},88811,"https://www.thehansindia.com/business/china-hong-kong-stocks-fall-on-gloomy-economic-data-vanke-default-risks-1031243",{"id":257,"title":258,"source":259,"logo":32,"time":66},87687,"China home-price slump persists as authorities vow to stabilise","https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/property/china-home-price-slump-persists-authorities-vow-stabilise",{"id":261,"title":262,"source":263,"logo":5,"time":75},88810,"Asia-Pacific Data Shows Housing Slumps And Central Banks On Alert","https://finimize.com/content/asia-pacific-data-shows-housing-slumps-and-central-banks-on-alert",{"id":265,"title":266,"source":267,"logo":12,"time":66},87688,"National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Selling Prices of Commercial Residential Buildings in 70 Large and Medium-Sized Cities Decreased MoM Overall in November | SMM","https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103670436/National-Bureau-of-Statistics-NBS:-Selling-Prices-of-Commercial-Residential-Buildings-in-70-Large-and-Medium-Sized-Cities-Decreased-MoM-Overall-in-November",{"id":269,"title":270,"source":271,"logo":5,"time":66},87685,"Chinese New Home Prices in First-Tier Cities Fall in November","https://www.marketscreener.com/news/chinese-new-home-prices-in-first-tier-cities-fall-in-november-ce7d50d8d18bf52c",{"id":273,"title":69,"source":274,"logo":42,"time":66},87686,"https://wkzo.com/2025/12/14/chinas-home-prices-slide-further-in-november/",{"id":276,"title":102,"source":277,"logo":33,"time":66},87683,"https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-home-prices-slide-further-november-2025-12-15/",{"id":279,"title":102,"source":280,"logo":37,"time":66},87684,"https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/319324/Chinas-home-prices-slide-further-in-November",{"id":282,"title":102,"source":283,"logo":14,"time":66},87681,"https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/china-s-home-prices-slide-further-in-november/ar-AA1SlLzM",{"id":285,"title":286,"source":287,"logo":25,"time":66},87682,"China home prices slip in November as market downturn moderates","https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/china-home-prices-slip-in-november-as-market-downturn-moderates/","#5e7cd6ff","#5e7cd64d",1766003462730]