Middle East Conflict Triggers 80% Jet Fuel Surge | Critical Shipping Cost Crisis for Cross-Border Sellers

The escalating geopolitical conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran is creating the most significant logistics disruption for cross-border e-commerce sellers since the COVID-19 pandemic. Beginning in late February 2026, military strikes triggered a severe jet fuel crisis affecting global aviation networks. European jet fuel prices have doubled while Asian prices surged nearly 80%, according to Reuters reporting. Major carriers including Delta Air Lines reported $400 million in cost increases during March alone, with American Airlines expecting similar first-quarter expenses. The UAE briefly closed its airspace on March 17, 2026, marking the second consecutive day of disruption following drone incidents near Dubai airport.

For e-commerce sellers, this crisis directly impacts shipping costs and logistics capacity. Jet fuel represents the second-largest airline operating expense after labor, typically accounting for 20-25% of total costs. Airlines are implementing fuel surcharges and fare increases to offset expenses, directly raising shipping costs for cross-border sellers. Scandinavia's SAS airline became among the first carriers to cut flights due to the "sharp and sudden increase" in fuel prices. Frankfurt airport, one of Europe's largest logistics hubs, saw 86,000 passengers affected by cancellations in the first two weeks, with only one-third of weekly Middle East connections operating. Vietnamese authorities warned the aviation industry to prepare for potential flight reductions from April after China and Thailand halted jet fuel exports, creating additional supply constraints.

The broader supply chain impact extends beyond aviation to maritime routes and energy markets. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—critical for global trade—is expected to remain minimal until early April, with projections of a potential 10-million-barrel daily oil shortfall from a prolonged closure. The UAE serves as a significant logistics hub for cross-border e-commerce in the Middle East and Asia, so prolonged conflict threatens fulfillment operations and delivery times. Sellers using air freight for perishables, electronics, and time-sensitive goods face the most acute challenges, with increased costs and delivery delays expected through at least mid-2026. European natural gas prices have risen due to LNG supply disruptions, and Asian equities have wavered as oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, affecting overall supply chain economics. Sellers relying on Middle Eastern markets or using shipping routes through the Persian Gulf face potential delays and elevated freight expenses, while those with inventory or operations in the UAE experience business continuity concerns.