US Oil Windfall $130bn Iran War | Energy Cost Impact for Sellers

US oil and gas companies earned more than $130 billion in profits during the war on Iran, according to an estimate released by The New York Times, covering 51 large firms from April through September, versus less than $47 billion in the same period of 2025. Brown University's Climate Solutions Lab estimates Americans spent an extra $150 billion on petrol and diesel since the war began on February 28, roughly $1,150 per household. For cross-border sellers, this signals sustained energy and logistics cost pressure that will flow directly into freight, fulfillment and last-mile delivery budgets. The news reports that ExxonMobil and Chevron posted quarterly profits between $10 billion and $15 billion, while Valero Energy third-quarter profit rose more than sixfold to $6.83 billion and Phillips 66 recorded its highest quarterly profit on record at $5.62 billion. Industry data shows these gains generally remained below 2022 levels, when oil approached $100 a barrel, compared with an average of about $90 from April through September this year.

Refiner margins are the operational signal sellers should track. Naser al-Tamimi of ISPI noted that refiners capture exceptional margins as diesel and fuel supplies tighten, and damage to Middle Eastern and Russian refineries, disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments and sanctions-related frictions have intensified shortages. Geoffrey Miller of Gulf States Insights described the conflict as the largest supply-side shock to global oil and refined products markets in years. For sellers, diesel is the key input: it drives linehaul and last-mile carrier surcharges used by Amazon Shipping, UPS, FedEx and regional 3PL providers, so fuel surcharge adjustments typically follow diesel benchmarks with a short lag. Sellers running FBA inbound shipments from Asia should expect freight rate volatility on Pacific routes as Gulf and Red Sea disruptions persist.

Consumer demand is likely to shift toward value and essentials. The news reports that Rabobank expects energy prices to stay high while the conflict remains uncertain, and that consumers will keep facing price pressure. The World Bank projects commodity prices to rise 23 percent this year, and the FAO reported world food commodity prices rose a further 1.5 percent in September. Similar historical energy shocks have typically pushed shoppers toward private label, bulk packs and lower-ticket discretionary substitutes. Sellers in apparel, home and outdoor categories often see conversion pressure on premium SKUs, so reallocating PPC budgets toward value-tier ASINs and bundle listings can protect margins.

For sellers, the trajectory depends on whether a durable US-Iran settlement is reached, and the news notes oil prices fell briefly after a June memorandum of understanding before rebounding when talks broke down. Monitor diesel indices weekly and model freight scenarios at current and 15-20 percent higher fuel levels.