Cuba Fuel Crisis Disrupts Caribbean Trade Routes | Sellers Face 30-40% Logistics Cost Surge Through March 2026

The Critical Supply Chain Disruption: On February 9, 2026, Cuba announced a catastrophic aviation fuel shortage that will persist through March 11, 2026, forcing major international carriers to suspend operations or implement costly workarounds. Air Canada immediately canceled all 16 weekly flights to Cuba, stranding approximately 3,000 Canadian tourists and eliminating a critical logistics corridor. This crisis stems directly from Trump administration tariff threats (announced January 29, 2026) targeting any nation supplying oil to Cuba, which forced Mexico—Cuba's primary crude oil supplier—to halt shipments. The fuel embargo represents the first major economic disruption following sanctions escalation and creates cascading effects across Caribbean trade networks affecting cross-border e-commerce sellers.

Immediate Operational Impact for E-Commerce Sellers: The one-month aviation fuel shortage (February 10 - March 11, 2026) eliminates air cargo capacity from Cuba and forces alternative routing through the Dominican Republic, increasing shipping costs 30-40% for sellers dependent on Caribbean distribution networks. Airlines implementing contingency measures include Iberia and Air Europa (now refueling in Dominican Republic), while American Airlines, Delta, and Aeromexico continue operations by carrying additional fuel reserves—a costly workaround that translates to higher freight rates. For sellers with inventory in Cuba or using Cuban transit hubs for regional distribution, this represents a severe operational constraint. The closure of tourist establishments and reduced working weeks (Monday-Thursday only) at Cuban state companies directly affects fulfillment operations and supplier access. Additionally, Miami-Dade County's heightened regulatory scrutiny—including a compliance transparency page identifying businesses with Cuban government ties and license revocations for suspected illegal connections—creates significant compliance risk for any seller engaged in Cuba trade.

Market Access and Competitive Shifts: Cuba's tourism revenue has collapsed from $3 billion annually to below $1 billion, with 754,000 Canadian tourists (largest source market), 110,000 US visitors, 56,000 from Mexico, and 46,000 from Spain now facing travel disruptions. This creates temporary market opportunities for sellers offering alternative tourism services, stranded tourist goods, and emergency supplies—though regulatory uncertainty complicates such ventures. Sellers with Russian or Canadian customer bases targeting Cuba-bound shipments face immediate market access restrictions. The broader pattern indicates escalating trade restrictions affecting regional commerce, requiring sellers to monitor policy developments and adjust market strategies accordingly. Insurance and logistics cost increases are likely as carriers reassess Caribbean route risk profiles. Sellers relying on Caribbean air freight routes should diversify logistics providers and establish contingency protocols immediately. The situation may create temporary market opportunities for sellers offering alternative tourism services or goods to stranded tourists, though regulatory uncertainty complicates such ventures. Mexico's announcement of humanitarian aid (800 tons dispatched) and diplomatic solution exploration suggests potential policy reversal, but the timeline remains uncertain through at least March 11, 2026.